Revolution Red Army
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Revolution Red Army
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The Fall of the House of Assad? (Prospect)
Bashar al-Assad has not yet fallen. I note this only because of the tone of
inevitability in some news reports on Syria's civil war. The downfall of
Tunisia's Ben Ali, Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Libya's Muammar Qaddafi may be no
more predictive than a roulette ball falling on red in the last three spins.
Arguably, the popular convulsion in the Middle East began not in Tunisia in
late 2010 but in Teheran in mid-2009, when the Iranian regime—Assad's
patron—crushed a popular revolution and erased the immense hopes it had
raised.
Still, it would be foolish to bet heavily on Assad's long-term survival as
Syria's leader. His forces may have retaken rebel-held suburbs of Damascus
this week, but armed rebels holding suburbs of a capital even for a few days
is the political equivalent of a tubercular cough.
Wagering on when the regime will crumble or what will replace it is equally
risky. Assad has already defied Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's December
prediction that the Syrian regime had only "weeks" left. Assad and the Alawite
minority's rule could last into 2013 or beyond, but are "doomed in the long
run," writes Joshua Landis, an American expert ...
The Russian Revolution (Red Army Choir)